The SPY Gap Radar analyzes overnight price movement and calculates statistical odds of gap fill, providing key intraday levels for gap trading strategies.
🎯 What is a Gap?
A gap occurs when today's opening price is significantly different from yesterday's closing price:
• Gap Up: Opened higher than yesterday's close (bullish overnight)
• Gap Down: Opened lower than yesterday's close (bearish overnight)
• Gap Size: The % difference between close → open
• Gap Fill: Price returning to previous day's close (fill the "gap")
Gaps happen due to: earnings, news, futures trading, pre-market moves.
📊 Understanding Gap Stats
The widget shows:
✅ Gap Type: "Gap Up" or "Gap Down"
✅ Gap Size: % difference (e.g., +0.45% = small, +2.5% = large)
✅ Previous Close: Yesterday's closing price (the gap fill target)
✅ Fill Odds: Statistical probability based on 90 days of SPY data
✅ Distance to Fill: How far price needs to move to fill the gap
✅ Current Price: Live SPY price with % change
⚠️ Gap Trading Strategies
STRATEGY 1: Gap Fill Fade (High Probability)
• When gap size is < 1% and Fill Odds > 60%
• Wait for 9:45-10:00am (opening volatility settles)
• Enter trade in direction of gap fill (mean reversion)
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
• Stop: Above/below opening range
STRATEGY 2: Gap & Go (Momentum)
• When gap size is > 1.5% and Fill Odds < 40%
• Strong overnight catalyst (earnings, Fed, geopolitics)
• Enter trade in direction of gap (momentum continuation)
• Target: Next key level (VWAP, yesterday's high/low)
• Stop: If price aggressively reverses into gap fill territory
STRATEGY 3: Wait & See (Choppy Setups)
• When gap size is 0.3-0.8% and Fill Odds = 45-55%
• No clear edge—avoid or wait for clearer intraday signal
• Monitor SPY Dashboard for Opening Range breakout instead
🔄 Gap Fill Timing
Gaps often fill during specific time windows:
• 9:30-10:00am: Opening volatility—gap fill attempts most common here
• 10:00-11:30am: Secondary reversal window after initial trend
• 2:00-4:00pm: Power hour—institutional flow can drive gap fill
• Overnight gaps > 2% often take 2-3 days to fully fill (don't force it)
💡 Pro Tip: If gap doesn't fill by 11:30am and trend is strong, it likely won't fill today.
💎 Best Practices
✅ Check Gap Radar at 9:30am - Know the overnight setup before trading
✅ Combine with Opening Range - OR breakout + gap fill = high-conviction
✅ Respect high fill odds (>65%) - Statistically strong fade setups
✅ Use VWAP as confirmation - Gap fills often coincide with VWAP tests
✅ Avoid trading gaps on low-volume days - Follow-through is weak
❌ Don't force gap fill on mega-gaps (>3%) - Strong catalyst, let it run
❌ Don't ignore macro context - Fed day? FOMC? Respect the event
💡 Quick Start: Look for gap size 0.4-1.2% + fill odds >60%. These are the cleanest fade setups. Wait until 9:50am for entry after opening volatility settles.
🎥 Video Tutorial Coming Soon