Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
About this role
About the work
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff, no hindsight, and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
What you will do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
Who we are looking for
- A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds, not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement, direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit
Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
Details
- Pay: $150 to $250/hr
- Company: Jade
- Location: Remote
- Eligible locations: Worldwide (no restriction)
- Platform: Mercor
Frequently asked questions
How much does the Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk role pay?
Mercor lists this Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk position at $150 to $250/hr. Pay is set by Mercor and your exact offer depends on your experience and the scope of the work.
Is the Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk role remote, and can I work from home?
Yes. Mercor lists this Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk position as fully remote, so you can work from home or anywhere with a reliable computer and internet connection.
Is Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk full time or part time?
Mercor lists this as a contractor remote role. Full details are in the role description above.
Which countries can apply for Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk?
Mercor lists this role with no country restriction. Check the Mercor listing for current requirements before applying.
Do I need experience to apply for Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk?
The requirements are listed in the role description above. Mercor screens applicants through its own process, and relevant skills or credentials strengthen your application.
How do I apply for the Political Expert, Elections Forecasting & Political Risk role, and is it legit?
Use the apply button on this page to go straight to the official Mercor listing. Mercor is a real hiring marketplace and applying is free. No legitimate employer charges you to apply.
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